DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023793
论文题名: Numerical simulations of snowfall events: Sensitivity analysis of physical parameterizations
作者: Fernández-González S. ; Valero F. ; Sánchez J.L. ; Gascõn E. ; Lõpez L. ; García-Ortega E. ; Merino A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2015
卷: 120, 期: 19 起始页码: 10130
结束页码: 10148
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Iberian Peninsula
; microphysics
; PBL
; snowfall
; WRF
Scopus关键词: accuracy assessment
; boundary layer
; cloud microphysics
; ensemble forecasting
; model validation
; numerical model
; parameterization
; raingauge
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; snow
; weather forecasting
; Iberian Peninsula
; Spain
英文摘要: Accurate estimation of snowfall episodes several hours or even days in advance is essential to minimize risks to transport and other human activities. Every year, these episodes cause severe traffic problems on the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. In order to analyze the influence of different parameterization schemes, 15 snowfall days were analyzed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, defining three nested domains with resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km. We implemented four microphysical parameterizations (WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme, Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (Yonsei University and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic), yielding eight distinct combinations. To validate model estimates, a network of 97 precipitation gauges was used, together with dichotomous data of snowfall presence/absence from snowplow requests to the emergency service of Spain and observatories of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. The results indicate that the most accurate setting of WRF for the study area was that using the Thompson microphysical parameterization and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic scheme, although the Thompson and Yonsei University combination had greater accuracy in determining the temporal distribution of precipitation over 1 day. Combining the eight deterministic members in an ensemble average improved results considerably. Further, the root mean square difference decreased markedly using a multiple linear regression as postprocessing. In addition, our method was able to provide mean ensemble precipitation and maximum expected precipitation,which can be very useful in the management of water resources. Finally, we developed an application that allows determination of the risk of snowfall above a certain threshold. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62985
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Physical Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Atmospheric Physics Group, IMA, University of Leõn, Leõn, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Fernández-González S.,Valero F.,Sánchez J.L.,et al. Numerical simulations of snowfall events: Sensitivity analysis of physical parameterizations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2015-01-01,120(19)