DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023853
论文题名: Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario
作者: Niu X. ; Wang S. ; Tang J. ; Lee D.-K. ; Gao X. ; Wu J. ; Hong S. ; Gutowski W.J. ; McGregor J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2015
卷: 120, 期: 19 起始页码: 9965
结束页码: 9980
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; interannual variability
; multi-RCM
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; future prospect
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; spatial distribution
; spatiotemporal analysis
; China
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (West)
; Yangtze Basin
英文摘要: As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62987
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Chinese Meteorology Agency, Beijing, China; Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Niu X.,Wang S.,Tang J.,et al. Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2015-01-01,120(19)