DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022824
论文题名: The influence of natural variability and interpolation errors on bias characterization in RCM simulations
作者: Addor N. ; Fischer E.M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2015
卷: 120, 期: 19 起始页码: 10180
结束页码: 10195
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias correction
; European Alps
; impact modeling
; natural variability
; observational uncertainties
; RCM simulations
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; data set
; error analysis
; error correction
; interpolation
; model validation
; observational method
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature profile
; uncertainty analysis
; Alps
; Switzerland
英文摘要: Climate model simulations are routinely compared to observational data sets for evaluation purposes. The resulting differences can be large and induce artifacts if propagated through impact models. They are usually termed "model biases," suggesting that they exclusively stem from systematic models errors. Here we explore for Switzerland the contribution of two other components of this mismatch, which are usually overlooked: interpolation errors and natural variability. Precipitation and temperature simulations from the RCM COSMO-Community Land Model were compared to two observational data sets, for which estimates of interpolation errors were derived. Natural variability on the multidecadal time scale was estimated using three approaches relying on homogenized time series, multiple runs of the same climate model, and bootstrapping of 30 year meteorological records. We find that although these methods yield different estimates, the contribution of the natural variability to RCM-observation differences in 30 year means is usually small. In contrast, uncertainties in observational data sets induced by interpolation errors can explain a substantial proportion of the mismatch of 30 year means. In those cases, we argue that the model biases can hardly be distinguished from interpolation errors, making the characterization and reduction of model biases particularly delicate. In other regions, RCM biases clearly exceed the estimated contribution of natural variability and interpolation errors, enabling bias characterization and robust model evaluation. Overall, we argue that bias correction of climate simulations needs to account for observational uncertainties and natural variability. We particularly stress the need for reliable error estimates to accompany observational data sets. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63009
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Addor N.,Fischer E.M.. The influence of natural variability and interpolation errors on bias characterization in RCM simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2015-01-01,120(19)