globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022358
论文题名:
Increasing the detectability of external influence on precipitation by correcting feature location in GCMs
作者: Levy A.A.L.; Jenkinson M.; Ingram W.; Lambert F.H.; Huntingford C.; Allen M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2014
卷: 119, 期:22
起始页码: 12466
结束页码: 12478
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution ; bias ; detection ; location ; precipitation ; registration
Scopus关键词: climate modeling ; climatology ; error analysis ; general circulation model ; least squares method ; methodology ; precipitation (climatology) ; simulation ; time series
英文摘要: Understanding how precipitation varies as the climate changes is essential to determining the true impact of global warming. This is a difficult task not only due to the large internal variability observed in precipitation but also because of a limited historical record and large biases in simulations of precipitation by general circulation models (GCMs). Here we make use of a technique that spatially and seasonally transforms GCM fields to reduce location biases and investigate the potential of this bias correction to study historical changes. We use two versions of this bias correction - one that conserves intensities and another that conserves integrated precipitation over transformed areas. Focussing on multimodel ensemble means, we find that both versions reduce RMS error in the historical trend by approximately 11% relative to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data set. By regressing GCMs' historical simulations of precipitation onto radiative forcings, we decompose these simulations into anthropogenic and natural time series. We then perform a simple detection and attribution study to investigate the impact of reducing location biases on detectability. A multiple ordinary least squares regression of GPCP onto the anthropogenic and natural time series, with the assumptions made, finds anthropogenic detectability only when spatial corrections are applied. The result is the same regardless of which form of conservation is used and without reducing the dimensionality of the fields beyond taking zonal means. While "detectability" is dependent both on the exact methodology and the confidence required, this nevertheless demonstrates the potential benefits of correcting location biases in GCMs when studying historical precipitation, especially in cases where a signal was previously undetectable. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63037
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford Centre for Functional MRI of the Brain, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Levy A.A.L.,Jenkinson M.,Ingram W.,et al. Increasing the detectability of external influence on precipitation by correcting feature location in GCMs[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2014-01-01,119(22)
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