DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021051
论文题名: Sensitivity of the atmospheric response to warm pool El Niño events to modeled SSTs and future climate forcings
作者: Hurwitz M.M. ; Garfinkel C.I. ; Newman P.A. ; Oman L.D.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 24 起始页码: 13371
结束页码: 13382
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; stratosphere
; teleconnections
; warm pool El Niño
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Lakes
; Sea ice
; Troposphere
; Upper atmosphere
; Vortex flow
; Chemistry-climate models
; ENSO
; Goddard earth observing systems
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; South pacific convergence zones
; Stratospheric polar vortex
; Teleconnections
; Warm pools
; Oceanography
; atmospheric forcing
; atmospheric modeling
; climate conditions
; concentration (composition)
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; greenhouse gas
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; ozone depletion
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; stratosphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: Warm pool El Niño (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Niño 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN. Key Points WPEN response sensitive to SSTs but not future climate conditions No Antarctic stratospheric response to WPEN in a future climate scenario Changes in WPEN teleconnections can be attributed to changing SSTs ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63087
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD 20771, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD, United States; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD, United States; Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Hurwitz M.M.,Garfinkel C.I.,Newman P.A.,et al. Sensitivity of the atmospheric response to warm pool El Niño events to modeled SSTs and future climate forcings[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(24)