DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020564
论文题名: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions
作者: Pinto J.G. ; Bellenbaum N. ; Karremann M.K. ; Della-Marta P.M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 22 起始页码: 12476
结束页码: 12485
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate Change
; Clustering
; Extra-tropical Cyclones
; Property losses
; Uncertainty
; Windstorms
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Oceanography
; Clustering
; Extra-tropical cyclones
; Property loss
; Uncertainty
; Windstorms
; Storms
; climate change
; cyclone
; data set
; extratropical environment
; future prospect
; jet stream
; marine atmosphere
; uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Europe
英文摘要: Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version-Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions. Key Points Clustering of extratropical cyclones is a robust feature in three reanalysis Serial clustering is stronger for extreme cyclones than non-extreme cyclones Projections indicate reduced clustering over storm track area and Western Europe ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63160
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Partner Reinsurance Company, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Pinto J.G.,Bellenbaum N.,Karremann M.K.,et al. Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(22)