DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020300
论文题名: Changing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in China during 2071-2100 based on Earth System Models
作者: Li J. ; Zhang Q. ; Chen Y.D. ; Xu C.-Y. ; Singh V.P.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 22 起始页码: 12537
结束页码: 12555
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; downscaling techniques
; Earth System Models
; extreme precipitation
; representative concentration pathways
Scopus关键词: Drought
; China
; Down-scaling
; Earth system model
; Extreme precipitation
; representative concentration pathways
; Floods
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; drought
; extreme event
; flood
; precipitation (climatology)
; raingauge
; return period
; risk assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; weather forecasting
; China
英文摘要: Outputs of five Earth System Models (ESMs) under historical and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multimodel data set, as well as daily precipitation from 527 rain gauge stations in China for the period of 1960-2005 are used to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation extremes over China for 2071-2100. After the evaluation of the indices by the Mann-Whitney U test and the quantile-quantile plot, the weather generator model (WGEN) is used to downscale precipitation extremes. The average of precipitation extremes and values of the 5 and 20 year return periods under RCP26 and RCP85 scenarios are analyzed. Results showed the following: (1) WGEN works well in downscaling extreme heavy precipitation indices and consecutive dry days. (2) The risks of meteorological droughts and floods resulting from extreme long-duration precipitation would decrease in southwest China, but the risks of floods due to extreme heavy precipitation would increase. In north and southeast China, the risks of droughts would decrease, but floods might occur with higher frequencies; (3) The spatiotemporal variations of averages and values of 5 year return period extreme precipitation would be similar, but those of 20 year return period would be a little different: The 20 year consecutive dry days would decrease faster, and the 20 year values of other indices would increase relatively slower. (4) The spatial patterns of changes in precipitation extremes under RCP26 and RCP85 would be similar, but the changes in RCP85 would be intensifying. Key Points Thorough evaluation of precipitation extremes based on Earth System Models Scrutiny of distribution shifts of precipitation extremes Detailed assessment of precipitation structure in the 21st century ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: 41071020
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63163
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Resource Management, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; School of Geography and Planning, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Key Lab. of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Zhang Q.,Chen Y.D.,et al. Changing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in China during 2071-2100 based on Earth System Models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(22)