DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020087
论文题名: Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case
作者: Corney S. ; Grose M. ; Bennett J.C. ; White C. ; Katzfey J. ; McGregor J. ; Holz G. ; Bindoff N.L.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 21 起始页码: 11936
结束页码: 11950
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model
; Downscaling
; high resolution climate projections
; Regional climate model
; Variable-resolution regional climate model
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric model
; Climate projection
; Down-scaling
; Dynamical downscaling
; General circulation model
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate simulation
; Temporal distribution
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; general circulation model
; image resolution
; performance assessment
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; Australia
; Tasmania
英文摘要: In this study we develop methods for dynamically downscaling output from six general circulation models (GCMs) for two emissions scenarios using a variable-resolution atmospheric climate model. The use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios gives an estimate of model range in projected changes to the mean climate across the region. By modeling the atmosphere at a very fine scale, the simulations capture processes that are important to regional weather and climate at length scales that are subgrid scale for the host GCM. We find that with a multistaged process of increased resolution and the application of bias adjustment methods, the ability of the simulation to reproduce observed conditions improves, with greater than 95% of the spatial variance explained for temperature and about 90% for rainfall. Furthermore, downscaling leads to a significant improvement for the temporal distribution of variables commonly used in applied analyses, reproducing seasonal variability in line with observations. This seasonal signal is not evident in the GCMs. This multistaged approach allows progressive improvement in the skill of the simulations in order to resolve key processes over the region with quantifiable improvements in the correlations with observations. Key Points Dynamical downscaling adds value to global climate models Dynamical downscaling increases the skill of GCMs Model output can be used as input to impacts models ©2013 The Authors. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63191
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, Highett, VIC, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Corney S.,Grose M.,Bennett J.C.,et al. Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(21)