DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50877
论文题名: Changes in precipitation intensity over East Asia during the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by a global atmospheric model with a 60 km grid size
作者: Kusunoki S. ; Mizuta R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 19 起始页码: 11007
结束页码: 11016
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change projection
; East Asia
; global atmospheric model
; high resolution model
; precipitation intensity
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Water vapor
; Climate change projections
; East Asia
; Global atmospheric models
; High-resolution models
; Precipitation intensity
; Computer simulation
; air temperature
; atmospheric modeling
; extreme event
; global climate
; image resolution
; precipitation intensity
; simulation
; twenty first century
; Far East
英文摘要: We conducted three-member ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model with a high horizontal resolution of a 60 km grid size for the period 1872-2099 (228 years). Between 1872 and 2005, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST), while between 2006 and 2099, the boundary SST data were estimated using the multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 models and assuming A1B emission scenario. Annual mean precipitation (PAVE), the Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), and the maximum 5 day precipitation total (R5d) averaged over East Asia increase almost monotonically through the 21st century. The statistically significant area of precipitation intensity increase is larger for 2080-2099 than for 2046-2065. In particular, intense rainfall will increase over northern and southern China during 2080-2099. The conversion rate from water vapor to precipitation per 1°C rise in surface air temperature for SDII and R5D is much larger than that for PAVE during the 21st century. This suggests that extreme rainfall events will occur more frequently than moderate rainfall events even if the amount of temperature rise is same. Future changes in the horizontal transport of water vapor also lead to more intense precipitation over East Asia. In particular, the increase in clockwise water vapor transport due to intensification of the subtropical high contributes to increased intense precipitation over southern China. Key Points Simulation for 20th and 21st centuries was done by 60 km global atmospheric model Precipitation intensity increases monotonically over East Asia in 21st century Increase rate of heavy precipitation is larger than moderate precipitation ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63239
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kusunoki S.,Mizuta R.. Changes in precipitation intensity over East Asia during the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by a global atmospheric model with a 60 km grid size[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(19)