DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50816
论文题名: Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.
作者: Ashfaq M. ; Ghosh S. ; Kao S.-C. ; Bowling L.C. ; Mote P. ; Touma D. ; Rauscher S.A. ; Diffenbaugh N.S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 19 起始页码: 10676
结束页码: 10693
语种: 英语
英文关键词: hydrological change
; hydrological modeling
; near-term projections
; snow cover
; western United States
Scopus关键词: Aerodynamics
; Agricultural runoff
; Agriculture
; Hydrology
; Snow
; Snow melting systems
; Water resources
; Hydrological changes
; Hydrological modeling
; near-term projections
; Snow covers
; Western United States
; Climate models
; acceleration
; baseflow
; climate change
; climate modeling
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; resolution
; runoff
; snow cover
; snow water equivalent
; snowmelt
; snowpack
; United States
英文摘要: Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (Community Climate System Model), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, base flow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and 1 April snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat. Key Points Acceleration of decreases in western U.S. spring snowpack in next three decades Shifts toward earlier snowmelt, base flow, and runoff dates throughout the region Hydrological response is dominated by changes in temperature ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: 0955283
; 3ERKP777
; DE-FG02-08ER64649
; DE-SC0001483
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63263
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, PO Box MS6301, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6301, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford CA, United States; Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India; Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN, United States; Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon Climate Services, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR, United States; Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark DE, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ashfaq M.,Ghosh S.,Kao S.-C.,et al. Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(19)