DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50649
论文题名: Thermal characteristics of the cold-point tropopause region in CMIP5 models
作者: Kim J. ; Grise K.M. ; Son S.-W.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 16 起始页码: 8827
结束页码: 8841
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Clouds
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate changes
; Interannual variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Quasi-biennial oscillation
; Stratospheric warmings
; Temperature variability
; Thermal characteristics
; Computer simulation
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; climatology
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; seasonality
; temperature effect
; tropopause
; water vapor
英文摘要: The climatology, seasonality, and intraseasonal to interannual variability of the temperature field near the cold-point tropopause (CPT) are examined using the state-of-the-art climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both historical simulations and future projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are used to evaluate model performance and to identify potential changes at the CPT focusing on the 100 hPa and zero-lapse-rate (ZLR) temperatures. It is found that historical simulations successfully reproduce the large-scale spatial structure and seasonality of observed temperature and reasonably capture variability associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation and equatorial waves near the CPT. However, the models show nonnegligible biases in several aspects: (1) most models have a warm bias around the CPT, (2) large intermodel differences occur in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in 100 hPa temperature, (3) several models overestimate lower stratospheric warming in response to volcanic aerosols, (4) temperature variability associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation and Madden-Julian oscillation is absent in most models, and (5) equatorial waves near the CPT exhibit a wide range of variations among the models. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the models predict robust warming both at the 100 hPa and ZLR levels, but cooling at the 70 hPa level. A weakened seasonal cycle in the temperature is also predicted in most models at both the 100 and 70 hPa levels. These findings may have important implications for cross-tropopause water vapor transport and related global climate change and variability. © 2013. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. American Geophysical Union. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63393
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim J.,Grise K.M.,Son S.-W.. Thermal characteristics of the cold-point tropopause region in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(16)