DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50695
论文题名: Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China from the CMIP5 models
作者: Huang D.-Q. ; Zhu J. ; Zhang Y.-C. ; Huang A.-N.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 16 起始页码: 9035
结束页码: 9047
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Rain
; Tectonics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Convective precipitation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Horizontal resolution
; Interannual variation
; Large-scale circulation
; Multi-model ensemble
; Summer precipitation
; Computer simulation
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; summer
; uncertainty analysis
; westerly
; China
; Huai Basin
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (West)
; Yangtze Basin
英文摘要: Based on 14 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), uncertainty on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China is analyzed by investigating the intercomparison between individual model and multimodel ensemble (MME). Generally, MME has the ability in reproducing summer precipitation over Eastern China. However, large model spread exists among models in both climatology and interannual variation. The possible reason for the large model spread lies in the uncertainties on simulating large-scale circulations, e.g., East Asian subtropical westerly jet, western Pacific subtropical high, and East Asian summer monsoon. To investigate uncertainties in different regions, Eastern China is divided to four subregions: South China (SC), Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB), North China (NC), and Northeast China (NEC). The annual cycle of regional mean precipitation from 14 CMIP5 models indicates that the model spread approaches maximum in early summer over SC and YHRB and in middle summer over NC and NEC. Uncertainties generally decrease from south to north, with the most sensitive region of SC. For different-class precipitation, the uncertainties of 14 models are small in relatively weak rain, but large in heavy and nonrainfall for all the four regions. We propose two possible reasons for the large uncertainties: different partitioning of stratiform/ convective precipitation and horizontal resolutions. © 2013. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. American Geophysical Union. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63394
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang D.-Q.,Zhu J.,Zhang Y.-C.,et al. Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China from the CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(16)