DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50572
论文题名: Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses
作者: McAfee S.A. ; Guentchev G. ; Eischeid J.K.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 14 起始页码: 7523
结束页码: 7541
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alaska
; precipitation
; trends
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (chemical)
; Alaska
; Climate variability
; Least absolute deviations
; Mann-Kendall trends
; Ordinary least squares regressions
; Precipitation trends
; Temporal homogeneities
; trends
; Least squares approximations
; autocorrelation
; climate variation
; heterogeneity
; homogeneity
; instrumentation
; precipitation (climatology)
; Alaska
; United States
英文摘要: Numerous studies have evaluated precipitation trends in Alaska and come to different conclusions. These studies differ in analysis period and methodology and do not address the issue of temporal homogeneity. To reconcile these conflicting results, we selected 29 stations with largely complete monthly records, screened them for homogeneity, and then evaluated trend over two analysis periods (1950-2010 and 1980-2010) using three methods: least absolute deviation regression, ordinary least squares regression (with and without transformation), and Mann-Kendall trend testing following removal of first-order autocorrelation. We found that differences in analytical period had a significant impact on trends and that the presence of inhomogeneities or step changes also posed a substantial challenge in detecting reliable long-term trends in precipitation over Alaska, particularly in the southern part of the state. Although some of these inhomogeneities occur in the mid-1970s and could be associated with well-documented changes in the Pacific Ocean and the Aleutian Low at that time, many of the inhomogeneities co-occur with changes in station location, instrumentation, or operation. These operationally induced changes make it difficult to accurately detect the impact of decadal to multidecadal climate variability on precipitation amounts and to assess historical precipitation trends in Alaska. Key Points Inhomogeneities complicate precipitation trend analysis in Alaska There are few robust trends in Alaskan precipitation Different trend detection methods produced similar results ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63511
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Wilderness Society, Anchorage AK, United States; Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Anchorage AK, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Visiting Scientist Programs, Boulder CO, United States; Climate Science and Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, NOAA, Boulder CO, United States; Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV, 89557, United States
Recommended Citation:
McAfee S.A.,Guentchev G.,Eischeid J.K.. Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(14)