DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50571
论文题名: Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Indices
作者: Russo S. ; Dosio A. ; Sterl A. ; Barbosa P. ; Vogt J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 14 起始页码: 7628
结束页码: 7639
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; drought
; extreme
; precipitation index
; statistical modeling
; wetness
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Drought
; Global warming
; Stream flow
; extreme
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation indices
; Regional climate models
; Standardized precipitation index
; Statistical modeling
; Statistical properties
; wetness
; Principal component analysis
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; drought stress
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; standardization
; Europe
英文摘要: The probabilities of the occurrence of extreme dry/wet years and seasons in Europe are estimated by using two ways of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and SPI-GEV) and the Standardized Nonstationary Precipitation Index (SnsPI). The latter is defined as the SPI by fitting precipitation data with a nonstationary Gamma distribution in order to model the precipitation time dependence under climate change. Bias-corrected daily precipitation outputs from five different regional climate models (RCMs) provided by the ENSEMBLES project are used. The five RCMs are selected so as to represent the main statistical properties of the whole ENSEMBLES set and the most extreme deviation from the ensemble mean. All indicators are calculated for the ensemble of the five models over the period 1971-2098. Results show that under global warming, climate in Europe will significantly change from its current state with the probability of the occurrence of extreme dry and wet years and seasons increasing, respectively, over southern dry and northern wet regions. Comparing nonstationary and stationary indices, the SnsPI is found to be more robust than the common SPI in the prediction of precipitation changes with multimodel ensembles. Key Points Projection of occurrence of extreme wet and dry precipitation over Europe Definition of the Standardized non-stationary Precipitation Index Comparing projected precipitation estimated with SPI, SPI-GEV, and SnsPI ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63551
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, IT-21027, Ispra, Italy; Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Russo S.,Dosio A.,Sterl A.,et al. Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Indices[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(14)