DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50567
论文题名: A simple model of global aerosol indirect effects
作者: Ghan S.J. ; Smith S.J. ; Wang M. ; Zhang K. ; Pringle K. ; Carslaw K. ; Pierce J. ; Bauer S. ; Adams P.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 12 起始页码: 6688
结束页码: 6707
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosol
; climate
; cloud
; indirect
; interactions
Scopus关键词: Beam plasma interactions
; Clouds
; Computer simulation
; Estimation
; Parameter estimation
; Range finding
; Uncertainty analysis
; Aerosol indirect effect
; Analytic representation
; Anthropogenic emissions
; climate
; Cloud condensation nuclei
; indirect
; Integrated assessment models
; Physically based models
; Aerosols
; aerosol
; climate modeling
; cloud condensation nucleus
; droplet
; energy balance
; hydrological cycle
; industrial emission
; numerical model
; particle size
英文摘要: Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as -5 W m-2 and as high as -0.3 W m-2 are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values. Key Points A simple physically-based model represents aerosol indirect effects The model estimates depend on parameters in ways like detailed global models The aerosol indirect effect is surprisingly linear in emissions © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63628
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd., Richland, WA 99352, United States; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ghan S.J.,Smith S.J.,Wang M.,et al. A simple model of global aerosol indirect effects[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(12)