DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50192
论文题名: The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change
作者: Levy II H. ; Horowitz L.W. ; Schwarzkopf M.D. ; Ming Y. ; Golaz J.-C. ; Naik V. ; Ramaswamy V.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 10 起始页码: 4521
结束页码: 4532
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosols
; climate
; climate change
; climate model
; indirect effect
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Emission control
; Loading
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Surface properties
; Aerosol indirect effect
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Carbonaceous aerosol
; climate
; Direct radiative forcing
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Global mean surface temperature
; Indirect effects
; Aerosols
; aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud droplet
; cloud water
; fluid dynamics
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; radiative forcing
; spatial distribution
; surface temperature
; twenty first century
; Far East
; South Asia
英文摘要: Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) fully coupled chemistry-climate (ocean/atmosphere/land/sea ice) model (CM3) with an explicit physical representation of aerosol indirect effects (cloud-water droplet activation), we find that the dramatic emission reductions (35%-80%) in anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors projected by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 result in ~1 °C of additional warming and ~0.1 mm day-1 of additional precipitation, both globally averaged, by the end of the 21st century. The impact of these reductions in aerosol emissions on simulated global mean surface temperature and precipitation becomes apparent by mid-21st century. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol emission reductions cause precipitation to increase in East and South Asia by ~1.0 mm day-1 through the second half of the 21st century. Both the temperature and the precipitation responses simulated by CM3 are significantly stronger than the responses previously simulated by our earlier climate model (CM2.1) that only considered direct radiative forcing by aerosols. We conclude that the indirect effects of sulfate aerosol greatly enhance the impacts of aerosols on surface temperature in CM3; both direct and indirect effects from sulfate aerosols dominate the strong precipitation response, possibly with a small contribution from carbonaceous aerosols. Just as we found with the previous GFDL model, CM3 produces surface warming patterns that are uncorrelated with the spatial distribution of 21st century changes in aerosol loading. However, the largest precipitation increases in CM3 are colocated with the region of greatest aerosol decrease, in and downwind of Asia. Key Points Aerosol reductions (RCP4.5) cause 1K warming and +0.1 mm/day of precipitation.Sulfate indirect effects greatly enhance aerosol impacts on surface temperature.Aerosol reductions increase precipitation in Asia by 0.5-1.0 mm/day by 2100. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63731
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Levy II H.,Horowitz L.W.,Schwarzkopf M.D.,et al. The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)