DOI: 10.1002/grl.50355
论文题名: Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies
作者: Hazeleger W. ; Guemas V. ; Wouters B. ; Corti S. ; Andreu-Burillo I. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J. ; Wyser K. ; Caian M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9122
EISSN: 1944-8853
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 9 起始页码: 1794
结束页码: 1798
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; initialization
; prediction
; skill
; verification
Scopus关键词: climate
; Climate variability
; Global temperatures
; initialization
; Probabilistic Skill
; Probabilistic verification
; skill
; Spatial characteristics
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Verification
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climatology
; drift behavior
; ensemble forecasting
; marine atmosphere
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent. Key PointsMultiyear climate variability is predictableDifferent initialization strategies give similar resultsThere is scope for probabilistic predictability in Europe © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879081831&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50355&partnerID=40&md5=2e077972629ffd87516ac57a8a15b36d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6386
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Global Climate Division, KNMI, PO BOX 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Hazeleger W.,Guemas V.,Wouters B.,et al. Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(9).