DOI: 10.1002/grl.50091
论文题名: An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones
作者: Lin I.-I. ; Black P. ; Price J.F. ; Yang C.-Y. ; Chen S.S. ; Lien C.-C. ; Harr P. ; Chi N.-H. ; Wu C.-C. ; D'Asaro E.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9125
EISSN: 1944-8856
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 9 起始页码: 1878
结束页码: 1882
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ocean cooling
; potential intensity index
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric measurement
; Estimation and predictions
; potential intensity index
; Root-mean square errors
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Subsurface information
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Atmospheric temperature
; Cooling
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; cooling
; data set
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; tropical cyclone
; upper ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC-induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air-deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST-PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC-PI) index. Using OC-PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998-2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC-PI reduces SST-PI-based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow-moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root-mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s-1. As OC-PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity. Key PointsCurrent potential intensity index considers only ocean's surface contributionInclusion of ocean's subsurface information to improve estimationBased on a valuable in situ data set from the ITOP field campaign ©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879106848&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50091&partnerID=40&md5=bb9b03979f2e9867ea9767dad2340f31
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6389
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Lin I.-I.,Black P.,Price J.F.,et al. An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(9).