DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50147
论文题名: Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs
作者: De Winter R.C. ; Sterl A. ; Ruessink B.G.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 4 起始页码: 1601
结束页码: 1612
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5
; North Sea
; wind extremes
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Storms
; Wind effects
; Climate scenarios
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Low atmospheric pressures
; Maximum wind speed
; North Sea
; Wind conditions
; Climate models
; climate change
; coastal protection
; flooding
; frequency analysis
; storm surge
; vulnerability
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Ocean
; North Sea
英文摘要: Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by low atmospheric pressure and severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Climate change could change maximum wind conditions, with potentially negative effects for coastal safety. Here, we use an ensemble of 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) and diagnose the effect of two climate scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) on annual maximum wind speed, wind speeds with lower return frequencies, and the direction of these annual maximum wind speeds. The 12 selected CMIP5 models do not project changes in annual maximum wind speed and in wind speeds with lower return frequencies; however, we do find an indication that the annual extreme wind events are coming more often from western directions. Our results are in line with the studies based on CMIP3 models and do not confirm the statement based on some reanalysis studies that there is a climate-change-related upward trend in storminess in the North Sea area. Key Points Annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in 12 analyzed GCMsExtreme wind events tend to come more often from western directionsDifferences between the models are larger than these between scenarios © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63928
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
De Winter R.C.,Sterl A.,Ruessink B.G.. Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(4)