DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50193
论文题名: Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system
作者: Jiang X. ; Yang S. ; Li Y. ; Kumar A. ; Wang W. ; Gao Z.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 3 起始页码: 1312
结束页码: 1328
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asian winter monsoon
; NCEP CFS
; prediction
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric model intercomparison projects
; Comprehensive assessment
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; East Asian winter monsoon
; National centers for environmental predictions
; NCEP CFS
; Seasonal climate prediction
; Forecasting
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; oceanic circulation
; precipitation (climatology)
; project assessment
; simulation
; timescale
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Far East
英文摘要: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) provides important source of information on seasonal climate prediction for many Asian countries that are affected by monsoon. In this study, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the prediction of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by the CFS version 2 (CFSv2) using the hindcast for 1983-2010, with a focus on seasonal-interannual time scales. Output from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations is also analyzed to understand the physical process of monsoon. Several major features of the EAWM are well predicted by the CFSv2. Particularly, the EAWM-related atmospheric circulation and surface climate over oceans are well predicted several months in advance, and the prediction over oceans is better than that over land. While the CFSv2 has low skill in predicting the Arctic Oscillation (AO), it well predicts El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on the EAWM, contributing to the decent prediction of EAWM. Comparisons among hindcast, AMIP, and CMIP indicate that ocean-atmosphere coupling is important for EAWM prediction. While the EAWM in AMIP is weaker, CMIP predicts more realistic monsoon features. The enhanced performance of CMIP is partly attributed to its better simulation of precipitation over the western Maritime Continent (MC). All three types of experiments fail to depict the relationship between EAWM and AO and simulate a stronger-than-observed response of EAWM to ENSO. Improving the simulation of convection over the MC potentially enhances the skill of CFSv2 in predicting the EAWM. Key PointsShowing skill of winter monsoon prediction by major climate forecast systemDiscussing air-sea interaction, tropical convection, and winter monsoonProviding useful information for monsoon prediction operation ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63939
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guanhzhou, Guangdong 510275, China; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province Jilin, Changchun, China
Recommended Citation:
Jiang X.,Yang S.,Li Y.,et al. Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(3)