DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50153
论文题名: Assessment of surface winds over the atlantic, indian, and pacific ocean sectors of the southern ocean in cmip5 models: Historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence
作者: Bracegirdle T.J. ; Shuckburgh E. ; Sallee J.-B. ; Wang Z. ; Meijers A.J.S. ; Bruneau N. ; Phillips T. ; Wilcox L.J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 2 起始页码: 547
结束页码: 562
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Emissions scenarios
; Intercomparisons
; Ozone recovery
; Pacific sector
; Poleward shift
; Southern ocean
; Standard deviation
; State dependence
; Computer simulation
; climate modeling
; climatology
; jet
; marine atmosphere
; surface wind
; westerly
; Atlantic Ocean
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models' simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.3° (inter-model standard deviation of±1.9°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.4±1.2 m/s, -19%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 28% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.33, 0.18 and 0.27°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors, respectively), and increases in strength (0.07, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade, respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r =-0.91) and weakest over the Atlantic sector (r =-0.39). An assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is not clearly linked to indices of jet structure whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be important. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63982
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom; School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bracegirdle T.J.,Shuckburgh E.,Sallee J.-B.,et al. Assessment of surface winds over the atlantic, indian, and pacific ocean sectors of the southern ocean in cmip5 models: Historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(2)