globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50126
论文题名:
Agreement in late twentieth century southern hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations and ccmval-2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models
作者: Young P.J.; Butler A.H.; Calvo N.; Haimberger L.; Kushner P.J.; Marsh D.R.; Randel W.J.; Rosenlof K.H.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期:2
起始页码: 605
结束页码: 613
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Ozone ; Radiosondes ; Uncertainty analysis ; Chemistry-climate models ; Lower stratosphere ; Photochemical ozone depletion ; Radiosonde observations ; Sampling uncertainties ; Southern Hemisphere ; Stratospheric temperature ; Temperature trends ; Climate models ; atmospheric general circulation model ; climate modeling ; cooling ; model validation ; observational method ; ozone depletion ; photochemistry ; radiosonde ; stratosphere ; trend analysis ; twentieth century ; uncertainty analysis ; Antarctica
英文摘要: We present a comparison of temperature trends using different satellite and radiosonde observations and climate (GCM) and chemistry-climate model (CCM) outputs, focusing on the role of photochemical ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during the second half of the twentieth century. Ozone-induced stratospheric cooling peaks during November at an altitude of approximately 100 hPa in radiosonde observations, with 1969 to 1998 trends in the range of -3.8 to -4.7 K/dec. This stratospheric cooling trend is more than 50% greater than the previously estimated value of -2.4 K/dec, which suggested that the CCMs were overestimating the stratospheric cooling, and that the less complex GCMs forced by prescribed ozone were matching observations better. Corresponding ensemble mean model trends are -3.8K/dec for the CCMs, -3.5K/dec for the CMIP5 GCMs, and -2.7K/dec for the CMIP3 GCMs. Accounting for various sources of uncertainty-including sampling uncertainty, measurement error, model spread, and trend confidence intervals-observations and CCM and GCM ensembles are consistent in this new analysis. This consistency does not apply to each individual that makes up the GCM and CCM ensembles, and some do not show significant ozone-induced cooling. Nonetheless, analysis of the joint ozone and temperature trends in the CCMs suggests that the modeled cooling/ozone-depletion relationship is within the range of observations. Overall, this study emphasizes the need to use a wide range of observations for model validation as well as sufficient accounting of uncertainty in both models and measurements. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64039
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Departamento de Física de la Tierra II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department for Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Young P.J.,Butler A.H.,Calvo N.,et al. Agreement in late twentieth century southern hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations and ccmval-2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(2)
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