| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50339
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| 论文题名: | Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion |
| 作者: | Gregory J.M.; Bi D.; Collier M.A.; Dix M.R.; Hirst A.C.; Hu A.; Huber M.; Knutti R.; Marsland S.J.; Meinshausen M.; Rashid H.A.; Rotstayn L.D.; Schurer A.; Church J.A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9144
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| EISSN: | 1944-8875
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 1600
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| 结束页码: | 1604
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; ocean heat content
; sea level rise
; volcano
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| Scopus关键词: | Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; Control experiments
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Historical periods
; Ocean heat content
; Sea level rise
; Volcanic eruptions
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Experiments
; Sea level
; Thermal expansion
; Volcanoes
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; general circulation model
; heat transfer
; sea level change
; thermal expansion
; volcanic eruption
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| 英文摘要: | Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5-30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias. Key Points Volcanic forcing is often omitted from AOGCM control experiments This causes a substantial underestimate of historical ocean thermal expansion A method to correct the underestimate is described and verified. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876189453&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50339&partnerID=40&md5=bbfbc5cc31bf7ae5177d7f42b9c9ac4c
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6408
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Gregory J.M.,Bi D.,Collier M.A.,et al. Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(8).
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