DOI: 10.1002/grl.50304
论文题名: The Beijing extreme rainfall of 21 July 2012: Right results but for wrong reasons
作者: Zhang D.-L. ; Lin Y. ; Zhao P. ; Yu X. ; Wang S. ; Kang H. ; Ding Y.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9182
EISSN: 1944-8913
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 7 起始页码: 1426
结束页码: 1431
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cloud-resolving modeling
; Extreme rainfall
; Linear mesoscale convective system
; Numerical weather prediction
Scopus关键词: Cloud resolving model
; Cloud-resolving
; Convective systems
; Extreme rainfall
; Local topography
; Mesoscale Convective System
; Numerical weather prediction
; Operational model
; Rain
; Storms
; Computer simulation
; atmospheric convection
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cold front
; extreme event
; numerical model
; rainfall
; terrain
; Beijing [China]
; China
英文摘要: The heaviest rainfall in 6 decades fell in Beijing on 21 July 2012 with a record-breaking amount of 460 mm in 18 h and hourly rainfall rates exceeding 85 mm. This extreme rainfall event appeared to be reasonably well predicted by current operational models, albeit with notable timing and location errors. However, our analysis reveals that the model-predicted rainfall results mainly from topographical lifting and the passage of a cold front, whereas the observed rainfall was mostly generated by convective cells that were triggered by local topography and then propagated along a quasi-stationary linear convective system into Beijing. In particular, most of the extreme rainfall occurred in the warm sector far ahead of the cold front. Evidence from a cloud-permitting simulation indicates the importance of using high-resolution cloud-permitting models to reproduce the above-mentioned rainfall-production mechanisms in order to more accurately predict the timing, distribution, and intensity of such an extreme event. Key Points Local terrain and echo-training are the causes for the extreme rainfall event High resolution cloud resolving models can predict this extreme rainfall event Operational models provided right guidance but for wrong reasons ©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876928481&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50304&partnerID=40&md5=023c0adf0ce6a0f9ecd2f6789aa97eb6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6446
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang D.-L.,Lin Y.,Zhao P.,et al. The Beijing extreme rainfall of 21 July 2012: Right results but for wrong reasons[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(7).