DOI: 10.1002/grl.50262
论文题名: Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?
作者: Frans C. ; Istanbulluoglu E. ; Mishra V. ; Munoz-Arriola F. ; Lettenmaier D.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9219
EISSN: 1944-8950
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 6 起始页码: 1104
结束页码: 1110
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate
; LULC
; Streamflow
Scopus关键词: Agricultural extensification
; Annual precipitation
; Climate
; Hydrologic changes
; Hydrologic response
; Land use/land cover
; LULC
; Nitrogen management
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Stream flow
; Watersheds
; Runoff
; climatology
; grassland
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; land cover
; precipitation (climatology)
; runoff
; Mississippi Basin
; United States
英文摘要: The Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) has experienced a remarkable agricultural extensification since the mid-1800s. Hydroclimatological monitoring in the 20th century also reveals positive annual precipitation and runoff trends in the UMRB. While several studies have proposed land use/land cover (LULC) change as the primary cause of runoff increase, little is known about the dominant controls of hydrologic change in the UMRB. We used a macroscale hydrology model to assess the hydrologic implications of climate and LULC changes between 1918 and 2007. Modeling results, corroborated with hydroclimatologic data analysis, emphasized climate change as the dominant driver of runoff change in the UMRB. At local scales, modeled annual runoff decreased (increased) by up to 9% (5%) where grasslands (forests) were replaced by croplands. Artificial field drainage amplified annual runoff by as much as 13%. These findings are critical for water and nitrogen management in the UMRB under change. Key Points Climate change is the dominant driver of positive runoff trends in the UMRB Influences of LULC on runoff increase in significance at finer spatial scales LULC has both dampened and amplified the local hydrologic response to climate. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876925632&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50262&partnerID=40&md5=4329b5a8b7e392f9d7e2c47ef3a2d578
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6483
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 261 Wilcox Hall, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
Recommended Citation:
Frans C.,Istanbulluoglu E.,Mishra V.,et al. Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(6).