DOI: 10.1002/grl.50177
论文题名: The impact of stratospheric resolution on the detectability of climate change signals in the free atmosphere
作者: Mitchell D.M. ; Stott P.A. ; Gray L.J. ; Allen M.R. ; Lott F.C. ; Butchart N. ; Hardiman S.C. ; Osprey S.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9278
EISSN: 1944-9009
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 5 起始页码: 937
结束页码: 942
语种: 英语
英文关键词: cmip5
; detection and attribution
; stratosphere
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic influence
; Atmosphere-ocean global climate model
; cmip5
; Detection and attributions
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Response to external forcing
; Statistically significant difference
; Vertical temperature profile
; Atmospherics
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Greenhouse gases
; Upper atmosphere
; Signal detection
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; global climate
; regression analysis
; simulation
; statistical analysis
; stratosphere
; troposphere
英文摘要: We perform a comparison of temperature changes in the free atmosphere over the period 1961-2010 using a high-top (lid at 84 km) and low-top (lid at 40 km) version of the HadGEM2 atmosphere-ocean global climate model. Model simulations of historical climate change that include key anthropogenic and natural external forcings are compared with three different radiosonde data sets. We also apply a regression-based "optimal fingerprinting" method to determine whether model-predicted temperature-change signals in response to external forcing are identifiable in observations. This method employs simulations that isolate the signals associated with different sets of external forcings (well-mixed GHGs and natural external factors). In both high- and low-top models, we obtain positive detection of the signals arising from anthropogenic influences. We find statistically significant differences between the latitude-height temperature signals simulated by the high- and low-top models, particularly in the tropical lower stratosphere. The scaling factors associated with each of the separate forcings are more tightly constrained in the high-top over the low-top model, but otherwise are similar in nature. Finally, we show that in detecting the GHG fingerprint, it is the entire vertical temperature profile that is important, not simply the lower-most tropospheric levels. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876800795&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50177&partnerID=40&md5=b01322a64d0134a94a1e57d4506f4311
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6542
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Mitchell D.M.,Stott P.A.,Gray L.J.,et al. The impact of stratospheric resolution on the detectability of climate change signals in the free atmosphere[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(5).