DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054431
论文题名: Predicting changes in temperate forest budburst using continental-scale observations and models
作者: Jeong S.-J. ; Medvigy D. ; Shevliakova E. ; Malyshev S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9366
EISSN: 1944-9097
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2 起始页码: 359
结束页码: 364
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon budgets
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Ecosystem levels
; Emissions scenarios
; Latitudinal gradients
; Secondary impacts
; Temperate forests
; Vegetation model
; Biology
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Digital storage
; Forestry
; budburst
; carbon budget
; climate change
; climate prediction
; forest ecosystem
; latitudinal gradient
; phenology
; Climates
; Forests
; Mathematical Models
; Phenology
; Species Identification
; United States
英文摘要: A new framework for understanding the macro-scale variations in spring phenology is developed by using new data from the USA National Phenology Network. Changes in spring budburst for the United States are predicted by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 outputs. Macro-scale budburst simulations for the coming century indicate that projected warming leads to earlier budburst by up to 17 days. The latitudinal gradient of budburst becomes less pronounced due to spatially varying sensitivity of budburst to climate change, even in the most conservative emissions scenarios. Currently existing interspecies differences in budburst date are predicted to become smaller, indicating the potential for secondary impacts at the ecosystem level. We expect that these climate-driven changes in phenology will have large effects on the carbon budget of U.S. forests and these controls should be included in dynamic global vegetation models. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84874887945&doi=10.1029%2f2012GL054431&partnerID=40&md5=8d02b1ca69ef270791f4173351186535
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6630
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jeong S.-J.,Medvigy D.,Shevliakova E.,et al. Predicting changes in temperate forest budburst using continental-scale observations and models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(2).