globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.07.061
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883395943
论文题名:
Effect of increasing temperatures on the distribution of spruce beetle in Engelmann spruce forests of the Interior West, USA
作者: DeRose R.J.; Bentz B.J.; Long J.N.; Shaw J.D.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN:  0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 308
起始页码: 198
结束页码: 206
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BIOMOD ; Forest Inventory and Analysis ; Global climate change ; Niche modeling ; Species distribution modeling
Scopus关键词: BIOMOD ; Effect of temperature ; Forest inventory and analysis ; Global climate changes ; Global climate model ; Increasing temperatures ; Species distribution modeling ; Temperature variables ; Application programs ; Climate change ; Disease control ; Ecosystems ; Forecasting ; Forestry ; basal area ; beetle ; climate effect ; climate modeling ; community composition ; endemic species ; forest ecosystem ; forest management ; global climate ; habitat selection ; pest control ; population distribution ; seasonal variation ; stand structure ; time dependent behavior ; Ecosystems ; Forecasts ; Forestry ; Inventory Control ; United States
英文摘要: The spruce beetle (Dendoctronus rufipennis) is a pervasive bark beetle indigenous to spruce (Picea spp.) forests of North America. In the last two decades outbreaks of spruce beetle have increased in severity and extent. Increasing temperatures have been implicated as they directly control beetle populations, potentially inciting endemic populations to build to epidemic (outbreak) proportions. However, stand structure and composition conditions will also influence beetle populations. We tested the effect of temperature variables (minimum cool season temperature and maximum warm season temperature), and habitat controls (structure and composition) on the prediction of spruce beetle presence/absence for 4198 Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm.) plots in the Interior West, USA. Predictions were applied to three global climate models (GCMs) for three time periods. While both temperature variables were important, results suggested habitat variables (spruce basal area and spruce composition) were more influential for the prediction of current beetle presence. Future beetle prevalence varied from 6.1% to 24.2% across GCMs and time periods. While both temperature variables increased over time, in some cases the increases were not proportional, which led to differential predictions of beetle population prevalence in space and time among GCMs. Habitat variables that characterized current spruce beetle susceptibility changed as future temperatures increased. Application of results to forest management will include adjusting monitoring programs to reflect the potential increased overall prevalence of the beetle, and modifying the characterization of high hazard spruce stands to reflect increasing beetle presence in stands with lower basal area and spruce composition than currently observed. © 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66488
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Forest Inventory and Analysis, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 507 25th Street, Ogden, UT 84401, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1200 E. 800 N., Logan, UT 84321, United States; Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, 5230 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-5230, United States

Recommended Citation:
DeRose R.J.,Bentz B.J.,Long J.N.,et al. Effect of increasing temperatures on the distribution of spruce beetle in Engelmann spruce forests of the Interior West, USA[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,308
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