globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874977421
论文题名:
Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century
作者: Flannigan M.; Cantin A.S.; De Groot W.J.; Wotton M.; Newbery A.; Gowman L.M.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN:  0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 294
起始页码: 54
结束页码: 61
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Fire management ; Fire season length ; Fire severity ; Fire weather ; Wildland fire
Scopus关键词: Emission scenario ; Fire management ; Fire severity ; Fire weather ; General circulation model ; High Latitudes ; Northern Hemispheres ; Wildland fire ; Climate change ; Fires ; climate change ; fire behavior ; fire management ; forest management ; general circulation model ; latitude ; Northern Hemisphere ; numerical model ; twenty first century ; wildfire
英文摘要: We used Cumulative Severity Rating (CSR), a weather-based fire danger metric, to examine the potential influence of climate change on global fire season severity. The potential influence of climate change on fire season length was also addressed. We used three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios to calculate the CSR and fire season length for mid-century (2041-2050) and late century (2091-2100) relative to the 1971-2000 baseline. Our results suggest significant increases in the CSR for all models and scenarios. Increases were greatest (more than three times greater than the baseline CSR) for the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the century. Fire season length changes were also most pronounced at the end of the century and for northern high latitudes where fire season lengths will increase by more than 20. days per year. The implications from this study are that fire seasons will be more severe in future and that conventional fire management approaches may no longer be effective. © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66705
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: University of Alberta, Dept. of Renewable Resources, 51 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada; Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen St. East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada; Natural Resources Canada-Canadian Forest Service, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3B3, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Flannigan M.,Cantin A.S.,De Groot W.J.,et al. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,294
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