DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.028
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871439776
论文题名: Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis: The Pinus pinea L. case study
作者: Manso R. ; Fortin M. ; Calama R. ; Pardos M.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 289 起始页码: 515
结束页码: 524
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Dormancy
; Hazard function
; Natural regeneration
; Random effects
; Survival analysis
Scopus关键词: Dormancy
; Hazard function
; Natural regeneration
; Random effects
; Survival analysis
; Bioinformatics
; Climate change
; Cultivation
; Experiments
; Forecasting
; Managers
; Reforestation
; Regression analysis
; Seed
; accuracy assessment
; climate conditions
; covariance analysis
; experimental study
; failure analysis
; forest cover
; forest management
; germination
; growth modeling
; probability
; regression
; seed
; species diversity
; stand structure
; temperature effect
; tree
; Spain
; Pinus pinea
英文摘要: The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L. Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66837
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Departamento de Selvicultura y Gestión de Sistemas Forestales, INIA - Forest Research Center, Ctra. La Coruña, km 7.5, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Laboratoire d'Etude de Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB UMR 1092), AgroParisTech, 14 rue Girardet, F-54042 Nancy Cedex, France
Recommended Citation:
Manso R.,Fortin M.,Calama R.,et al. Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis: The Pinus pinea L. case study[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,289