DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.035
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867424395
论文题名: Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states
作者: Holsten A. ; Dominic A.R. ; Costa L. ; Kropp J.P.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2013
卷: 287 起始页码: 123
结束页码: 131
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baumgartner
; Burnt area
; Climate change
; Fire index
; Nesterov
; Scenario
Scopus关键词: Baumgartner
; Brandenburg
; Burnt areas
; Climate projection
; Correlation coefficient
; Explanatory power
; Fire risk index
; Fire risks
; Fire statistics
; Fire weather index
; Forest fires
; Forest managers
; Median correlation
; Meteorological variables
; Moisture conditions
; Monthly scale
; Nesterov
; Predictive capacity
; Predictive power
; Preventive measures
; Scenario
; Summer months
; Time-periods
; Climate change
; Deforestation
; Fires
; climate change
; federal system
; forecasting method
; forest fire
; forest management
; meteorology
; moisture
; performance assessment
; relative humidity
; risk factor
; stand structure
; temperature effect
; Deforestation
; Forest Fires
; Germany
; Indexing
; Seasonal Variation
; Brandenburg [Germany]
; Germany
英文摘要: Meteorological forest fire risk indices have been developed to forecast the risk of fire occurrence and aid forest managers to take suitable preventive measures. We evaluate five meteorological fire risk indices and relevant meteorological variables for their predictive capacity against monthly fire statistics for 13 German states between 1993 and 2010. Mean relative humidity stands out as the best overall predictor (for 9 out of 13 states) for the recorded number of fires with a median correlation coefficient for Germany of -0.7. The indices with best explanatory power were, in decreasing order, the German modified M-68, the Canadian Fire Weather Index and Angström. The correlations of fire data with relative humidity and fire indices were stronger for states particularly prone to fire occurrence. At the monthly scale, correlations of relative humidity and fire indices with area burnt are in average weaker than with the number of fires. For the same time period, we investigated the performance on a daily scale for the state of Brandenburg. In this case, the performance of fire indices and relative humidity were more similar than at the monthly level. In addition, the number of fires could be explained equally well as the area burnt. Climate projections under different temperature and moisture conditions consistently indicate a monthly decrease in relative humidity until 2060, particularly in the summer months. Future monthly values of M-68 also denote a considerable increase of fire risk in summer. The increase in fire risk at the beginning and end of the fire season points to a possible extension of the current fire season. Our results reveal that mean relative humidity is sufficient to describe observed fire occurrences in Germany at both monthly and daily scales. Correlation coefficients were robust in state, country, monthly and daily analysis. Due to its predictive power and simplicity of calculation, relative humidity is a valid or better alternative in Germany as a proxy for monthly forest fire risk. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/66874
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Holsten A.,Dominic A.R.,Costa L.,et al. Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2013-01-01,287