DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062029
论文题名: Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over recent decades
作者: Regayre L.A. ; Pringle K.J. ; Booth B.B.B. ; Lee L.A. ; Mann G.W. ; Browse J. ; Woodhouse M.T. ; Rap A. ; Reddington C.L. ; Carslaw K.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9437
EISSN: 1944-9168
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 9040
结束页码: 9049
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosol indirect effect
; aerosol-cloud interaction
; decadal climate projection
; perturbed parameter ensemble
; sensitivity analysis
; statistical emulation of a complex model
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Budget control
; Climate models
; Sensitivity analysis
; Solar radiation
; Sulfur dioxide
; Uncertainty analysis
; Aerosol indirect effect
; Aerosol-cloud interaction
; Climate projection
; Complex model
; perturbed parameter ensemble
; Aerosols
; albedo
; anthropogenic effect
; cloud radiative forcing
; energy balance
; hiatus
; regional climate
; sensitivity analysis
; sulfur dioxide
; timescale
; uncertainty analysis
; volcanic cloud
英文摘要: Aerosols and their effect on the radiative properties of clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in calculations of the Earth's energy budget. Here the sensitivity of aerosol-cloud albedo effect forcing to 31 aerosol parameters is quantified. Sensitivities are compared over three periods; 1850-2008, 1978-2008, and 1998-2008. Despite declining global anthropogenic SO2 emissions during 1978-2008, a cancelation of regional positive and negative forcings leads to a near-zero global mean cloud albedo effect forcing. In contrast to existing negative estimates, our results suggest that the aerosol-cloud albedo effect was likely positive (0.006 to 0.028Wm-2) in the recent decade, making it harder to explain the temperature hiatus as a forced response. Proportional contributions to forcing variance from aerosol processes and natural and anthropogenic emissions are found to be period dependent. To better constrain forcing estimates, the processes that dominate uncertainty on the timescale of interest must be better understood. Key Points Forcing sensitivity to aerosol parameters is strongly period dependentUnderstanding near-future climate is limited if a single period is consideredIn recent decades, parametric uncertainty is smaller than model diversity ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921790880&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062029&partnerID=40&md5=40ba027986211b72331273f6acce10e1
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6701
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Regayre L.A.,Pringle K.J.,Booth B.B.B.,et al. Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over recent decades[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).