DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062308
论文题名: Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought
作者: AghaKouchak A. ; Cheng L. ; Mazdiyasni O. ; Farahmand A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9464
EISSN: 1944-9195
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 8847
结束页码: 8852
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Drought
; Global warming
; Water supply
; Climate extremes
; Decision makers
; Effects of temperature
; Extreme temperatures
; High temperature
; Risk assessment methods
; Warming climate
; Water shortages
; Risk assessment
; climate change
; decision making
; drought
; extreme event
; global warming
; multivariate analysis
; risk assessment
; snowpack
; California
; United States
英文摘要: Global warming and the associated rise in extreme temperatures substantially increase the chance of concurrent droughts and heat waves. The 2014 California drought is an archetype of an event characterized by not only low precipitation but also extreme high temperatures. From the raging wildfires, to record low storage levels and snowpack conditions, the impacts of this event can be felt throughout California. Wintertime water shortages worry decision-makers the most because it is the season to build up water supplies for the rest of the year. Here we show that the traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on precipitation condition may substantially underestimate the risk of extreme events such as the 2014 California drought because of ignoring the effects of temperature. We argue that a multivariate viewpoint is necessary for assessing risk of extreme events, especially in a warming climate. This study discusses a methodology for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes such as droughts and extreme temperatures. Key Points Univariate return period analysis underestimates risk of concurrent extremesA concurrent extreme viewpoint is necessary in a warming climateA framework is discussed for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921877209&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062308&partnerID=40&md5=98f6b2c3603756b3f3c6c86b5e1a3c6c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6728
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
AghaKouchak A.,Cheng L.,Mazdiyasni O.,et al. Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).