DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062380
论文题名: Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction
作者: Su J. ; Xiang B. ; Wang B. ; Li T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9488
EISSN: 1944-9219
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 9058
结束页码: 9064
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El Nino
; ENSO prediction
; SSTA in the subtropical Pacific
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Nickel
; Surface waters
; Equatorial Pacific
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; SST anomalies
; Surface warming
; Surface winds
; Oceanography
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; thermocline
; warming
; wind forcing
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: In the summer of 2012, there was a clear signal of the developing El Niño over the equatorial Pacific, and many climate models forecasted the occurrence of El Niño with a peak phase in the subsequent winter. However, the warming was aborted abruptly in late fall. Here we show that the abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming was largely attributed to the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the northeastern and southeastern subtropical Pacific. The anomalous SST cooling induced strong easterly and low-level divergence anomalies, suppressing the development of westerly and convection anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific. Thus, the surface warming over the equatorial Pacific was decoupled from the surface wind forcing and subsurface thermocline variability, inhibiting its further development into a mature El Niño in the winter of 2012-2013. This study highlights the importance of the SST anomaly in the subtropical Pacific in El Niño prediction. Key Points The 2012 warming terminated abruptly in autumn, which has been rarely observedThe subtropical Pacific cooling plays a critical role in termination of warmingThe SSTA in the subtropical Pacific is an important factor for ENSO prediction ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921840370&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062380&partnerID=40&md5=38cba66d3181f7a4118e7541224de735
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6752
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Su J.,Xiang B.,Wang B.,et al. Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).