DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2016.055
论文题名: Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the wami ruvu Basin of Tanzania
作者: Luhunga P. ; Chang’a L. ; Djolov G.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2017
卷: 8, 期: 1 起始页码: 142
结束页码: 164
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts
; Crop modelling
; Maize yields
; Regional climate model
英文摘要: The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas. © IWA Publishing 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67553
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; Tanzania Meteorological Agency, Research Section, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Recommended Citation:
Luhunga P.,Chang’a L.,Djolov G.. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the wami ruvu Basin of Tanzania[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2017-01-01,8(1)