DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2016.097
论文题名: Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology
作者: Elias E. ; Rango A. ; Steele C.M. ; Mejia J.F. ; Baca R. ; James D. ; Schrader S. ; Gronemeyer P.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 4 起始页码: 665
结束页码: 682
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Regional climate modeling
; Rio Grande
; Snowmelt runoff model
英文摘要: For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2º C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67581
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, Jornada Experimental Range, 2995 Knox Street, Las Cruces, NM, United States; New Mexico State University, 2995 Knox Street, Las Cruces, NM, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV, United States
Recommended Citation:
Elias E.,Rango A.,Steele C.M.,et al. Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(4)