DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062409
论文题名: Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers
作者: Zscheischler J. ; Reichstein M. ; Von Buttlar J. ; Mu M. ; Randerson J.T. ; Mahecha M.D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9495
EISSN: 1944-9226
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 8853
结束页码: 8861
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle
; CMIP5
; extreme events
Scopus关键词: Biology
; Budget control
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Drought
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Feedback
; Forestry
; Carbon cycles
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Extreme events
; Gross primary production
; Net ecosystem production
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Climate models
; carbon budget
; carbon dioxide
; climate feedback
; concentration (composition)
; drought
; global climate
; net ecosystem production
; primary production
; spatiotemporal analysis
; terrestrial ecosystem
; twenty first century
英文摘要: Climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves affect terrestrial ecosystems and may alter local carbon budgets. However, it still remains uncertain to what degree extreme impacts in the carbon cycle influence the carbon cycle-climate feedback both today and the near future. Here we analyze spatiotemporally contiguous negative extreme anomalies in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in model output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble and investigate their future development and attribution to climatic drivers. We find that relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake, negative extremes in GPP and NEP lose importance toward the end of the 21st century. This effect can be related to elevated CO2 concentrations and higher amounts of available water at the global scale, partially mitigating the impacts of droughts and heat waves, respectively. Overall, based on CMIP5 models, we hypothesize that terrestrial ecosystems might be more resilient against future climate extremes than previously thought. Future work will have to further scrutinize these results considering that various biological and biogeochemical feedbacks are not yet integrated within Earth system models. Key Points Relative impact of negative extremes in GPP and NEP does not increase till 2100Negative extremes in GPP and NEP are driven by concurrent dry and hot conditions ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921751040&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062409&partnerID=40&md5=389344a25dab3bcd36f3438068a49f90
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6759
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Zscheischler J.,Reichstein M.,Von Buttlar J.,et al. Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).