globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.072
论文题名:
Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China
作者: Zhu Q.; Jiang H.; Peng C.; Liu J.; Fang X.; Chen H.; Liu S.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期:3
起始页码: 302
结束页码: 316
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China ; Climate change ; Hydrological effects ; Uncertainty ; Water resource
英文摘要: The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty. © IWA Publishing 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67740
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Laboratory for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A and F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Hankou Road 22, Nanjing 210093, China; Institute of Environment Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal H3C3P8, Canada; Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT, Inc.), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earth Resources Observation and Science(EROS) Center, 47914 252nd St, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, United States; School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China

Recommended Citation:
Zhu Q.,Jiang H.,Peng C.,et al. Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(3)
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