DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062018
论文题名: Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes
作者: Fischer E.M. ; Sedláček J. ; Hawkins E. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9516
EISSN: 1944-9247
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 23 起始页码: 8554
结束页码: 8562
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate extremes
; heat wave
; heavy precipitation
; model agreement
Scopus关键词: Computer simulation
; Annual mean precipitation
; Climate extremes
; Heat waves
; Heavy precipitation
; Internal variability
; Precipitation extremes
; Risk perspective
; Temperature extremes
; Climate models
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; temperature effect
; terrestrial ecosystem
; Eurasia
; North America
英文摘要: Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921606688&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062018&partnerID=40&md5=d8278245d1ed1c67dead8e7621a0945d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6780
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Fischer E.M.,Sedláček J.,Hawkins E.,et al. Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(23).