DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061573
论文题名: Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon
作者: Saha A. ; Ghosh S. ; Sahana A.S. ; Rao E.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9664
EISSN: 1944-9395
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 20 起始页码: 7323
结束页码: 7330
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Indian monsoon
; model evaluation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Food supply
; Geophysics
; Water resources
; Adaptation strategies
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Indian monsoon
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Model evaluation
; Tropical Western Pacific
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cyclone
; failure analysis
; food security
; general circulation model
; geophysical method
; monsoon
; numerical model
; India
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies. Key Points CMIP5 models fail to simulate post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian MonsoonIdentification of geophysical processes associated with decreasing ISMRReasons behind failure of CMIP5 models in simulating ISMR trend ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84911416184&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061573&partnerID=40&md5=c8dbe5f0cd54ff74b029503786ff7ecd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6928
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, India
Recommended Citation:
Saha A.,Ghosh S.,Sahana A.S.,et al. Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(20).