DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060799
论文题名: Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent
作者: Msadek R. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Winton M. ; Gudgel R.G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9957
EISSN: 1944-9688
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 14 起始页码: 5208
结束页码: 5215
语种: 英语
英文关键词: initial conditions
; sea ice predictions
; seasonal forecast systems
; state dependence predictability
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Weather forecasting
; Assimilation system
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric components
; Initial conditions
; Prediction model
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; State dependence
; Sea ice
; atmosphere-ice-ocean system
; atmospheric circulation
; climate prediction
; ice thickness
; marine atmosphere
; sea ice
; seasonality
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: We present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982-2013 period using two suites of retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year-to-year fluctuations of Arctic SIE, with significant correlations up to 7 month ahead for September detrended anomalies. Predictions over the recent era, which coincides with an improved observational coverage, outperform the earlier period for most target months. We find, however, a degradation of skill in September during the last decade, a period of sea ice thinning in observations. The two prediction models, Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) and Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR), share very similar ocean and ice component and initialization but differ by their atmospheric component. FLOR has improved climatological atmospheric circulation and sea ice mean state, but its skill is overall similar to CM2.1 for most seasons, which suggests a key role for initial conditions in predicting seasonal SIE fluctuations. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84904777918&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060799&partnerID=40&md5=d9538f86caa4c43d5e9c746e76685c72
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7221
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Msadek R.,Vecchi G.A.,Winton M.,et al. Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(14).