DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060004
论文题名: To what extent can interannual CO2 variability constrain carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change in CMIP5 Earth System Models?
作者: Wang J. ; Zeng N. ; Liu Y. ; Bao Q.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10034
EISSN: 1944-9765
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 10 起始页码: 3535
结束页码: 3544
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon-climate feedback
; CMIP5
; Earth System Models in CMIP5
; interannual CO2 variability
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Feedback
; Tropics
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Interannual
; Linear relationships
; Model inter comparisons
; Tropical ecosystems
; Tropical temperatures
; Climate models
; annual variation
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; tropical environment
英文摘要: We analyze the carbon-climate feedback in eight Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We focus on tropical land carbon change and find decreases (-31.02 to -169.32 GtCK -1) indicating tropical ecosystems will release carbon as temperature warms, thus contributing to a positive feedback identified in earlier studies. We further investigate the relationship between tropical land carbon change and sensitivity of historical atmospheric CO2 growth rate to tropical temperature variability and find a weak linear relationship. This sensitivity for most models is stronger than observed. We further use this "emergent constraint" to constrain uncertainties in model-projected future carbon-climate changes and find little effect in narrowing the model spread, but the mean sensitivity is slightly smaller. This contrasts with earlier Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project results, highlighting the challenge in constraining future projections by modern observations and the necessity for evaluating such relationships continuously. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84900646709&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060004&partnerID=40&md5=0052637802a20dcb8d117f7b510999e8
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7298
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang J.,Zeng N.,Liu Y.,et al. To what extent can interannual CO2 variability constrain carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change in CMIP5 Earth System Models?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(10).