DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060011
论文题名: Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in boreal winter by dynamical seasonal forecasting systems
作者: Kang D. ; Lee M.-I. ; Im J. ; Kim D. ; Kim H.-M. ; Kang H.-S. ; Schubert S.D. ; Arribas A. ; MacLachlan C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10059
EISSN: 1944-9790
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 10 起始页码: 3577
结束页码: 3585
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate variability
; coupled models of the climate system
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Arctic Oscillation
; Arctic oscillations
; Climate system
; Climate variability
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Seasonal forecasting
; Surface temperatures
; Forecasting
; Arctic Oscillation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonality
; surface temperature
; weather forecasting
; winter
英文摘要: This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).© 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901182378&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060011&partnerID=40&md5=a5e31bff940a81aa2e9f5e708e6f6a1b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7323
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kang D.,Lee M.-I.,Im J.,et al. Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in boreal winter by dynamical seasonal forecasting systems[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(10).