DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059760
论文题名: Attributing the probability of South African weather extremes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: Spatial characteristics
作者: Angélil O. ; Stone D.A. ; Pall P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10114
EISSN: 1944-9845
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 9 起始页码: 3238
结束页码: 3243
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution
; extremes
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
; attribution
; Daily precipitations
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme weather events
; extremes
; Spatial characteristics
; Probability
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric pollution
; emission
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatial analysis
; South Africa
英文摘要: Recent studies have examined the role of anthropogenic emissions in the probability of extreme weather events. These studies examine an event aggregated over a spatial domain, but the dependence on domain definition is unknown. Here we investigate this dependence for the frequency of daily weather extremes across South Africa using a climate model run under both a real-world and a nongreenhouse gas world scenario. Attributable changes in extremely hot and cold days are dominated by large-scale spatial structures, with sharp gradients at the 100km scale arising for hot events because of the large magnitude of changes. The attributable probabilities of heavy precipitation events are spatially heterogeneous down to the 100km resolution of the climate model. Therefore, while estimates of attributable probability for temperature events may often be considered valid within smaller and neighboring spatial domains, it appears that estimates for heavy daily precipitation events may be sensitive to the definition of the event. Key Points The effect of emissions on heavy precipitation events may be highly local The effect of emissions on extreme temperatures can be spatially generic The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation trends may be poorly understood © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901931164&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059760&partnerID=40&md5=cb87203456e6174987172e0ef4920101
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7378
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate Systems Analysis Group, Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Angélil O.,Stone D.A.,Pall P.. Attributing the probability of South African weather extremes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: Spatial characteristics[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).