| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL059484
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| 论文题名: | Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity |
| 作者: | Urban N.M.; Holden P.B.; Edwards N.R.; Sriver R.L.; Keller K.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10179
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| EISSN: | 1944-9910
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 2543
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| 结束页码: | 2552
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate sensitivity
; feedback
; learning
; ocean heat
; transient
; uncertainty
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Feedback
; Transients
; Climate sensitivity
; Energy balance models
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; learning
; Mitigation policies
; Ocean heat
; Surface temperatures
; uncertainty
; Climate change
; atmospheric forcing
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate prediction
; energy balance
; heat flux
; historical perspective
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; learning
; mitigation
; precautionary principle
; sensitivity analysis
; surface temperature
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Equilibrium climate sensitivity measures the long-term response of surface temperature to changes in atmospheric CO2 the range of climate sensitivities in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report is unchanged from that published almost 30-years earlier in the Charney Report. We conduct perfect model experiments using an energy balance model to study the rate at which uncertainties might be reduced by observation of global temperature and ocean heat uptake. We find that a climate sensitivity of 1.5°C can be statistically distinguished from 3°C by 2030, 3°C from 4.5°C by 2040, and 4.5°C from 6°C by 2065. Learning rates are slowest in the scenarios of greatest concern (high sensitivities), due to a longer ocean response time, which may have bearing on wait-and-see versus precautionary mitigation policies. Learning rates are optimistic in presuming the availability of whole ocean heat data but pessimistic by using simple aggregated metrics and model physics. Key Points Climate sensitivity uncertainty not greatly reduced over decades of research Continued observations may substantially reduce uncertainty over the next decades Rate of learning may affect wait-and-see versus precautionary mitigation policies © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84899036813&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059484&partnerID=40&md5=cbf96ead12e0691cbeb25097ce05b4a5
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7443
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Computational Physics and Methods (CCS-2), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Urban N.M.,Holden P.B.,Edwards N.R.,et al. Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(7).
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