DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996598310
论文题名: Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland
作者: Marmy A ; , Rajczak J ; , Delaloye R ; , Hilbich C ; , Hoelzle M ; , Kotlarski S ; , Lambiel C ; , Noetzli J ; , Phillips M ; , Salzmann N ; , Staub B ; , Hauck C
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2016
卷: 10, 期: 6 起始页码: 2693
结束页码: 2719
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75043
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Marmy A,, Rajczak J,, Delaloye R,et al. Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland[J]. Cryosphere,2016-01-01,10(6)