DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951928364
论文题名: Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration
作者: Goldberg D ; N ; , Heimbach P ; , Joughin I ; , Smith B
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期: 6 起始页码: 2429
结束页码: 2446
语种: 英语
英文关键词: calibration
; glacier flow
; glacier mass balance
; ice movement
; ice retreat
; ice stream
; model test
; numerical model
; sea level change
; Antarctica
; Kohler Glacier
; Pope Glacier
; Smith Glacier
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75206
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Univ. of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; University of Texas, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences/Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States; Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Recommended Citation:
Goldberg D,N,, Heimbach P,et al. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(6)