globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-719-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928109183
论文题名:
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland
作者: Westermann S; , Elberling B; , Højlund Pedersen S; , Stendel M; , Hansen B; U; , Liston G; E
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期:2
起始页码: 719
结束页码: 735
语种: 英语
英文关键词: active layer ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; environmental gradient ; permafrost ; soil depth ; spatiotemporal analysis ; Arctic ; Greenland ; Greenland ; Zackenberg
英文摘要: The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of present and future ground temperatures at 10 m resolution for a 4 km long transect across the lower Zackenberg valley in northeast Greenland. The results are based on stepwise downscaling of future projections derived from general circulation model using observational data, snow redistribution modeling, remote sensing data and a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ measurements of thaw depths at two CALM sites and near-surface ground temperatures at 17 sites suggests agreement within 0.10 m for the maximum thaw depth and 1°C for annual average ground temperature. Until 2100, modeled ground temperatures at 10 m depth warm by about 5°C and the active layer thickness increases by about 30%, in conjunction with a warming of average near-surface summer soil temperatures by 2°C. While ground temperatures at 10 m depth remain below 0°C until 2100 in all model grid cells, positive annual average temperatures are modeled at 1 m depth for a few years and grid cells at the end of this century. The ensemble of all 10 m model grid cells highlights the significant spatial variability of the ground thermal regime which is not accessible in traditional coarse-scale modeling approaches. © Author(s) 2015.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75315
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, Copenhagen K., Denmark; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, Oslo, Norway; Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark; Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, Denmark; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, 1375 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Westermann S,, Elberling B,, Højlund Pedersen S,et al. Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(2)
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