DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058532
论文题名: Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in the presence of natural climate variability
作者: Huber M. ; Beyerle U. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10267
EISSN: 1944-9998
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 6 起始页码: 2086
结束页码: 2092
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate sensitivity
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Estimation
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate sensitivity
; Earth system model
; Initial condition ensembles
; Internal variability
; Natural climate variabilities
; Reduced complexity
; Temperature changes
; Temperature projection
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; estimation method
; future prospect
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: We use an initial condition ensemble of an Earth System Model as multiple realizations of the climate system to evaluate estimates of climate sensitivity and future temperature change derived with a climate model of reduced complexity under "perfect" conditions. In our setup, the mean and most likely estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity vary by about 0.4-0.8°C (±1σ) due to internal variability. Estimates of the transient climate response vary much less; however, the effect of the spread and bias in the transient response on future temperature projections increases with lead time. Future temperature projections are shown to be more robust for central ranges (i.e., likely range) than for single percentiles. The estimates presented here strongly depend on a delicate balance between a particular realization of the climate system, the emerging constraints on the estimates as well as on the signal, and the decreasing uncertainties in ocean heat uptake observations. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84896691779&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058532&partnerID=40&md5=47d097a9bf8394bd41913f04b3886f05
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7531
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Huber M.,Beyerle U.,Knutti R.. Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in the presence of natural climate variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(6).