DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-595-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042406833
论文题名: Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
作者: Ran Y ; , Li X ; , Cheng G
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2018
卷: 12, 期: 2 起始页码: 595
结束页码: 608
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature
; climate feedback
; environmental protection
; frozen ground
; land surface
; remote sensing
; resource development
; snow cover
; sustainable development
; China
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s to the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) by integrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surface temperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values, and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise of approximately 0.04 °C a-1 in the decadal mean MAAT values over the past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used to convert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that the climate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the past half century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost is approximately 153.76 × 104 km2, which corresponds to 88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 % of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of the cool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the very warm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition. Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likely thawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The mean elevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawing permafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and 250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increased risks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects the well-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the Third Pole. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75417
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, China; Institute of Urban Studies, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China
Recommended Citation:
Ran Y,, Li X,, Cheng G. Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Cryosphere,2018-01-01,12(2)